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Title: A methodology to estimate failure rates of multiple pipeline systems from historical failure data
Category: Technical papers from the Journal of Pipeline Engineering
Downloadable: Yes 
Catalog No.: 2146s
Date of Publication: Sep 1 2008 12:00AM
Price: $25.00 US
Authors: Dr L Alfonso, Dr F Caleyo, A Alcántara, and Dr J M Hallen
Abstract: IN THIS WORK, the statistical methods for the reliability of repairable systems have been used to produce a methodology capable to estimate the annualized failure rate of a pipeline population from the historical failure data of multiple pipelines systems. The proposed methodology provides point and interval estimators of the failure intensity function parameters for two of the most commonly-applied stochastic models: the homogeneous Poisson process, and the power-law process. Statistical tests are provided for assessing the adequacy of the stochastic model assumed for each system and for testing the equality of the model parameters. In this way, the failure data of different pipeline systems are only grouped to produce a generic failure intensity function when all systems follow the same stochastic model. This allows addressing both statistical and tolerance uncertainty adequately. For the sake of illustration, the methodology is applied to the analysis of real-life failure data compiled by the US Department of Transport Office of Pipeline Safety (DOT-OPS) from 1994 to 2005 for transmission gas pipelines.

References

1. S.E.Rigdon and A.P.Basu, 2000. Statistical methods for the reliability of repairable systems, John Wiley & Sons Inc., New York.
2. H.Harold and H.Feingold, 1984. Repairable systems reliability: modeling, inference, misconceptions and their causes. Marcel Dekker Inc., New York.
3. J.Kiefner, R.E.Mesloh, and B.A.Kiefner, 2001. Analysis of DOT reportable incidents for gas transmission and gathering system pipelines: 1985 through 1997, Pipeline Research Council International. Catalogue No. L51830E.
4. J.R.Fragola, 1996. Reliability and risk analysis database development: an historical perspective. Reliability Eng. System Safety, 51, pp125-136.
5. M.Nessim, W.Zhou, J.Zhou, B.Rothwell, and M.McLamb, 2004. Target reliability levels for design and assessment of onshore natural gas pipelines. Proc. IPC 2004, International Pipeline Conference, IPC04-0321.
6. Australian Office of Gas Safety, 2004. Overseas and Australian statistics for gas transmission and distribution incidents. pp 5-13. Available online at: www.ogs.vic.gov.au/OGS/ogsnav.nsf.
7. G.Pulcini, 2001. A bounded intensity process for the reliability of repairable equipment. J. Quality Technol., 33, 4, pp480-462.
8. L.Lee, 1980. Comparing rates of several independent Weibull processes. Technometrics, 22, 3, pp427-430.
9. http://primis.phmsa.dot.go

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