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Title: Deterministic and probabilistic approaches for scheduling mitigations of crack-like anomalies
Category: Technical papers from the Journal of Pipeline Engineering
Downloadable: Yes 
Catalog No.: 2375s
Date of Publication: 2016-06-01
Price: $25.00 US
Authors: Dr Jing Ma and Michael J Rosenfeld
Abstract: CRACK-LIKE ANOMALIES ARE recognized to pose potential threats to a pipeline’s safety depending on their size, the inherent resistance of the material to crack propagation, and the operating conditions of the pipeline. Two primary aspects of integrity assessment have to be taken into account: burst pressure and crack-growth life. The combination of these two elements constitutes the foundation of the mitigation planning, including the repair or reassessment schedule.

As part of the project DTPH5614H00005 supported by PHMSA, both deterministic and probabilistic approaches were explored to arrange the remediation of crack-like anomalies. Safety factors in the conventional deterministic method were represented by the statistical distributions of diverse parameters in the probabilistic method to account for the uncertainties of material strength and toughness, crack sizing, and algorithm error.

This paper summarizes the findings from an operator’s real case example. The probabilistic-assessment method demonstrates its own value to risk ranking which assists the mitigation planning, particularly when the fatigue lives from the deterministic calculation for all the segments cannot be apparently differentiated. The probability of failure enhances the prioritization process and indicates the effectiveness of mitigation efforts over time.

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