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Title: A probabilistic method for prioritizing repairs following an ILI crack tool run
Category: Technical papers from the Journal of Pipeline Engineering
Downloadable: Yes 
Catalog No.: 2449s
Date of Publication: 2018-12-01
Price: $25.00 US
Authors: Dr Ted Anderson, Jim Andrew, and Jason Moritz
Abstract: THIS PAPER PRESENTS a new probabilistic model for assessing seam weld anomalies and prioritizing repairs. This model considers the uncertainty in flaw dimensions, strength properties, and fracture toughness. The failure probability of each detected flaw is computed individually, and the combined probability of failure in the line is inferred from standard probability relationships. This model does not merely rank flaws by burst pressure, as is common in both deterministic and probabilistic approaches. Rather, the model considers time-dependent degradation due to pressure cycling. The model computes the conditional probability of failure versus time for each flaw. The flaws are then ranked by their respective probabilities. This information enables the operator to quantify the relative benefits of a dig program. While traditional rules-based decision processes are highly subjective, the probabilistic model quantifies the risk of various alternatives.
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