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Title: A practical approach in pipeline corrosion modelling: Part 1 – Long-term integrity forecasting
Category: Technical papers from the Journal of Pipeline Engineering
Downloadable: Yes 
Catalog No.: 2155s
Date of Publication: Mar 1 2009 12:00AM
Price: $25.00 US
Authors: Dr Érika S M Nicoletti and Ricardo Dias de Souza
Abstract: NOWADAYS, MANY MAJOR MARKETS worldwide depend upon an increasingly-ageing pipeline infrastructure to supply most energy demands. As corrosion damage accumulation is usually expected under typical pipeline service conditions, forecast metal-loss growth over time is a key element in their integrity management; but there is little industrial guidance on this issue. The current work has been undertaken aiming to provide a corrosion rate model by means of straightforward stochastic treatment of metal-loss ILI data. This first part will present a model framework regarding long-term scenarios and remaining-life predictions, based on a cost-effective pecuniary threshold for the system’s future remedial actions. The concept of local activity breaks new ground by merging two traditional approaches: the individual defect and the pipeline segment corrosion growth rates. The model’s underlying assumptions are detailed, together with its mathematical framework; an empirical balance has been established between over- and under-conservative premises, and the accuracy of the results has been considered suitable for forecasting intervals of up to 30 years. The technique provides powerful information with no need to carry out any further expensive and/or laborious analyses: the whole algorithm could be easily put into practice using commercial mathematical packages. In order to illustrate the model’s applicability, four case studies will be presented.


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